NAGAON, March 31 - Who will have the last laugh in Nagaon district this time around in the polls to the Lok Sabha? The scene in the district is still hazy as to who from the Congress or the AGP-BJP alliance candidates will triumph in the Nagaon and Kaliabor parliamentary constituencies.
Political observers feel that there will be religious polarisation here which will be a big threat to Indian democracy in the future. It was earlier assumed that the initiative of the saffron party to amend the citizenship bill would play a major role among the indigenous Assamese people and that they will vote against the ruling party. Similarly, the dissidents� factions of the AGP who oppose the renewal of alliance with the BJP would also mobilise the indigenous voters against the ruling party. The massive discontent of some supporters as well as the party workers of the district and Bengali Hindu voters of Hojai and Lumding who are personally close to the sitting MP of the constituency-cum-Union Minister Rajen Gohain would also pose a tough hurdle for the party candidate, Rupak Sarma.
But all those assumptions or speculations of the political observers have turned futile in view of the fact that the opposition Congress and the AIUDF have allegedly come together to fight against the saffron party in most of the seats in the State. The minority vote is a key factor for parties like the AGP or to some extent the Congress. In these seats, usually the minority voters decide who will win. Nagaon and Kaliabor parliamentary constituencies are two such constituencies where the minority voters will decide who will win the battle.
There are a total of 9 LACs out of which Jamunamukh, Lahorighat, Raha, Hojai, Nagaon and Barhampur have a substantial amount of minority voters who get divided between the Congress and AIUDF and hence make going easy for parties like the BJP or others. This factor had enabled BJP�s Rajen Gohain to win four consecutive terms. But this time no such division of the minority vote will occur as the AIUDF has not put up any candidate in the constituency. Therefore, most of the minority vote may go in favour of the Congress candidate, Pradyut Bordoloi.
On the other hand, most of the indigenous as well as the Hindu Bengali voters may get influenced by the changing political scenario and if it is so, then the fight will be confined between the BJP and Congress in Nagaon. The same picture exists in Kaliabor constituency too. Out of the ten LACs, the religious minority voters dominate four LACs � Samaguri, Rupahihat, Batadrava and Dhing. The fight will be confined to two corners � between the candidates of the AGP-BJP alliance and the Opposition Congress.
In Kaliabor, the AGP-BJP alliance candidate Moni Madhav Mahanta, brother of the State minister and AGP�s executive president, Keshab Mahanta is contesting against the Congress candidate and sitting MP of the constituency, Gaurav Gogoi, son of former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi.
