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Parties speculate over magic number

By Ajit Patowary

GUWAHATI, April 16 � There is almost a month�s time for the Assam Assembly election results to be declared on May 13 next. This has provided enough scope for poll result-oriented speculations here.

Though the following information are sure to create confusion among the common people, these are all products of the assumptions done by the major political parties of the State. Each of these parties is now excitedly claiming that it would be winning the magic numbers crucial for formation of the next Government.

According to former Minister Ripun Bora, who analysed the Congress� electoral prospect in this Assembly polls, on behalf of the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC), his party is likely to win 66 seats.

Conversely, considering the April 4 and 11 polling patterns, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is confident that it would be the single largest party in the next Assembly and would be leading the next Government in the State.

Political observers here believe that in case the AGP emerges as the single largest party in the Assembly, it may ally with the BJP to form the Government, for its obligation towards the indigenous support base.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expecting about 45 seats in the 126-member Assembly.

It needs mention here that Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi on Tuesday had claimed that the Congress would win 63 seats in the Assembly polls.

Ripun Bora said in his report that the Congress is 100 per cent sure to win 32 seats. On top of this, the party is expected to win at least 18 other seats in the worst of situations. It can expect at least half of 16 other seats, it may win three seats by waging tough battles, wrest four seats fighting the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and one seat by fighting the BJP, said Bora in his report.

In his report, Bora has set aside ten seats for Congress� alliance partner Bodoland People�s Front (BPF).

AGP president Chanrda Mohan Patowary said that there is every possibility of his party emerging as the single largest party and thus the possibility of an AGP-led Government in the State is bright. Meanwhile, AGP leaders have claimed that their party would likely to win between 51 and 56 Assembly seats.

BJP sources said that the saffron party is likely to win about ten seats in Barak Valley districts, sweep the 12 seats in Tinsukia and Dibrugarh districts, win one seat in Sivasagar district and the Dhemaji seat in Dhemaji district. It is likely to retain the Behali and Lumding seats.

The party is sure to win two seats in Darrang district including Kalaigaon, Kamalpur in Kamrup district, Patacharkuchi and Sarabhog seats in Barpeta district and Dhubri in Dhubri district.

The party is likely to win Guwahati East and West and Raha (SC), Hojai, Jagiroad (SC) and Howraghat seats, said the BJP sources.

Besides, the party has done very well in Dhekiajuli and Golokganj seats this time, said the BJP sources.

Sources in the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) said that their party is sure to win 15 seats this time and it is likely to win18 other seats. It needs mention here that the BJP sources also admitted that the AIUDF has done very well in the Lower Assam districts of Barpeta, Goalpara and Dhubri.

The Congress secured 31.07 per cent votes in the 2006 Assembly polls, with the AGP securing 20.39 per cent, AGP�P securing 2.51 per cent, BJP securing 11.98 per cent and the AUDF (now AIUDF) securing 9.02 per cent of the votes polled that time.

In 2009 Parliamentary elections, the Congress secured 34.89 per cent of the total votes polled. The BJP jumped to the second position securing 16.21 per cent of the total votes cast that time. The AIUDF also showed much improvement in its support-base by winning 16.10 per cent of the votes polled. Significantly, the AGP could secure only 14.60 per cent of the votes polled that time.

However, AIUDF sources maintained that the votes during the 2009 Parliamentary elections were mostly cast on communal lines, particularly in respect to BJP and AIUDF and that polling pattern is unlikely to be reflected this time.

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