Navigating the New World Order: Dr. Andrew Michta Talks Geopolitical Shifts and India’s Emerging Role
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has left a profound socio-economic scar across the globe, with countries scrambling to realign alliances and devise new bilateral trade agreements to ensure survival. The war, initiated by Russian forces more than 500 days ago and described by Russian leader Vladmir Putin as a "special military operation", has disturbed global dynamics and brought new aspects of the conflict to light, such as the recent revolt by the Wagner group against the Putin administration.
In a recent dialogue with Prassenjit Lahiri, Senior Partner at the South Asia-based consulting firm SFC Asia, Dr Andrew Michta, Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Centre for Security Studies, dissected the conflict's complexities, its influence on international relations and trade, Putin's aspirations, the geopolitical tug-of-war between the West and the Russia-China alliance, and the worldwide energy dilemma.
The Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Global Power Structures
Dr. Michta described the ongoing conflict, which has lasted over 16 months, as a game-changer for international politics. In the conversation with Mr. Lahiri, he noted the war had disrupted a three-decade-long period of peace and downsizing of defence spending post-Cold War. The present conflict is the most substantial conventional war Europe has witnessed since 1945, making resolution an intricate process. Furthermore, the threat posed by the Russia-China alliance against the United States and other democracies exacerbates the situation.
In Dr. Michta's view, Putin's Russia is on a mission to resume what began during the Cold War, while China aspires to replace the existing world order with its own mercantile capitalist ideology, aspiring to become the leading power. He emphasized that the ongoing scenario compelled countries to reconsider their dependencies on rivals for crucial commodities, including minerals and equipment. He also shed light on Russia's increasing dependency on China for crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales.
He further highlighted the changing geopolitical dynamics in Eurasia as a result of this new alignment, as well as the growing domestic instability in Russia resulting from the war, the attempted Wagner mutiny, and the emigration of Russian citizens opposed to the conflict and Putin's actions.
Despite the brief duration of the Wagner group's revolt, it exposed potential cracks in Russia's military hierarchy. The absence of immediate military response to the mutiny could indicate a sense of rebellion within the ranks, suggested Michta. Many analysts argue that Putin could leverage this incident to consolidate domestic support, fuelling fear of both external and internal threats.
However, Michta cautioned against overlooking Russia's troubled military history, citing the potential political and economic repercussions if Russia fails in Ukraine.
Energy Crisis, China's Role, and Indo-American Relations
The fallout from the war led to an international energy crisis, as many countries boycotted Russia, the world's second-largest crude oil producer. Simultaneously, Russia imposed restrictions on oil purchases, demanding payment in Russian rubles, which deterred many European nations.
China, however, quickly stepped in to absorb Russia's excess oil output. Moreover, the availability of cheap labor in China and much of Asia has drawn industries to relocate their supply chains there, thus further empowering China and posing an existential threat to the West.
Dr. Michta also discussed India's recent increase in Russian oil purchases due to its cost-effectiveness, and the growing Indo-American relations, spurred by the current geopolitical situation and the strengthening Russia-China ties. He suggested that the crisis might present an opportunity for India to accelerate modernization, although it also introduces risks, particularly in its relationship with China.
Predicting Future Scenarios and Global Power Dynamics
Michta predicts that India's ties with the US and the West will strengthen. However, he also cautioned that the partnership could strain India's relationships with China and Russia. While India has remained neutral about the conflict publicly, advocating for peace, Michta argues that the West should recognize India's uniqueness and potential due to its diversity.
Regarding Russia, he warns against underestimating the nation despite its diminishing strength, and highlights that China stands to gain from the conflict, particularly by acquiring advanced Russian technology.
As nations align themselves in response to the war, their choices will likely be driven by interests rather than ethical considerations or justice. The direction of the war remains uncertain, with the resilient Russians known for their ability to regroup and reorganize. However, the fallout from the conflict will undeniably continue to reverberate globally.