GUWAHATI, Dec 31 - Several major issues may change the course of politics in the State in the year 2019, including the publication of the final National Register of Citizens (NRC), the fate of the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016, the upcoming parliamentary elections, and the situation in Bangladesh.
The process of updating the NRC is in its final stage and December 31 was the last date for submission of claims and objections in respect of the draft NRC. The disposal of claims and objections will take some time depending on factors like the number of claims and objections filed, availability of officers to dispose of the same, etc. Though the date for publication of the final NRC is yet to be announced, it is likely to be published by June 2019, which will be one of the major events in the new year.
The Government of India is yet to spell out its policies for those whose names will not appear in the NRC. There have been reports that the government has resigned to the fact that it would not be possible to drive out lakhs of people, whose names would not appear in the NRC. It is also reported that the government is examining the feasibility of disenfranchising those whose names will not appear in the NRC and giving them long term work permits.
Different organisations of the State, including the All Assam Students� Union (AASU), have been demanding that those whose names would not appear in the NRC should be deported, but it is unlikely that the government would be able to take such an action. Moreover, the people whose names will not appear in the NRC will have the right to appeal before the foreigners tribunals, and as lakhs of cases are already pending before the tribunals, it will take years to dispose of the cases.
Under the circumstances, the Government of India will have to spell out clear-cut policies to deal with the problem before the publication of the final NRC to remove apprehension and confusion from the minds of the people.
The second major issue which can have serious implications in the State is the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016, that aims to provide citizenship to the people belonging to minority communities who have taken refuge in India following religious persecution in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Assam has already witnessed strong protests by different political parties and organisations against the Bill as it may change the social fabric of the State. The policy of the Government of India on the Bill is yet to be known and even if the Bill is passed by the Lok Sabha during the current winter session, it will be difficult for the BJP-led government at the Centre to pass it in the Rajya Sabha, at least in the near future.
If the Bill is passed, the State may witness major political changes. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has already announced that it would come out of the State government if the Bill is passed. Moreover, the State may witness intensification of the movement against the Bill if the government ignores the voice of the people and passes the Bill forcefully in Parliament.
The general elections are only a few months away and the State�s political situation may witness major changes during the polls. In the last general elections, the BJP showed its best ever performance in Assam by winning seven of the 14 seats and it remains to be seen whether the party manages to retain its position or face anti-incumbency. The political alliances may also witness changes before the elections, which will largely depend on the fate of the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill.
The political situation in Bangladesh may also affect Assam and other states of the Northeast in 2019. The ruling Awami League is all set to form the government in Bangladesh again. However, the footprints of the Islamic State (IS) have been witnessed in Bangladesh with militant outfit Neo JMB reportedly working for it, and, if such outfits manage to grow in the neighbouring country, it will pose a serious security threat to Assam, West Bengal and other states of the region.
