Security Expert Aparna Pande on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: An Analysis of the challenges and implications for India
July 2: In defiance of Vladimir Putin's predictions, along with the anticipations of international observers, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is far from over, with nearly 500 days elapsed and a Ukrainian counteroffensive underway. As Russia grapples with internal dissent, the trajectory of the clash remains uncertain, raising questions about the timeframe for a possible settlement.
This prolonged confrontation has demanded significant concessions from both sides, yet there seems to be little appetite from either Putin or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to relinquish the stakes that triggered the hostilities. The repercussions are felt globally, with inflation and energy deficits in the early stages of the war causing lasting damage, intensifying international diplomatic strife.
Recent insights into the intricate developments, potential challenges, and diplomatic rivalries of this issue were provided by Dr. Aparna Pande, Director of the Hudson Institute's Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia, during a discussion with Prassenjit Lahiri, a Senior Partner at South Asia-based consulting firm, SFC Asia.
Navigating the intricacies and costs Putin's initial projection for his "special military mission" in Ukraine was a few weeks, yet it has dragged on, weakening Russia's military standing. Dr. Pande observes, "Both sides are immovable. The Ukrainian counteroffensive aims to regain control over strategic points and strengthen their negotiation position."
Noting the "one step forward, two steps back" pattern, Dr. Pande stressed Russia's resilience, citing its historical tolerance for significant losses. She also mentioned the extensive economic and military aid Ukraine has received from international allies, making a swift victory unlikely for either side.
The prolonged conflict has strained both nations. Ukraine grapples with large-scale infrastructure damage and economic downturn, while Russia faces external pressures and internal dissent.
Global Ripple Effects
Weathering the crisis As one of the world's primary crude oil suppliers, Russia's conflict has sparked a global energy crisis. Its decision to refuse oil exports to most of Western Europe and insistence on transactions in Russian rubles has triggered a spike in oil prices and left countries scrambling for energy supplies.
During their exchange, Lahiri proposed a compelling query to Dr. Pande, delving into the complex geopolitical interplay among Russia, China, and India. "Could a debilitated Russia lead to a more dominant China, posing potential consequences for India?" Lahiri asked.
Dr. Pande agreed with Lahiri's analysis, acknowledging the potential fallout of such a power transition. Indeed, a weakened Russia might inadvertently fortify China, hence amplifying China's sway over the region, she conceded. Should this happen, it could lead to China influencing Russia, an eventuality that wouldn't bode well for India. This underscores the extensive reverberations the Russia-Ukraine conflict could have on the wider geopolitical landscape.
Dr. Pande underscores Russia's reliance on China for international economic engagement, and asserts that India is both cognizant of and prepared for any negative scenarios that might arise from this. The recent visit by India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, to the United States, wherein strategic defence partnerships were discussed, exemplifies India's proactive stance. Notably, one of these discussions resulted in a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between GE Aerospace and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), indicating India's readiness to diversify its defence alliances.
India's reliance on Russia for the majority of its military equipment—over 70%—adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Dr. Pande presents a possible circumstance in which a resource-drained Russia, with Chinese influence, could leave India incapacitated to procure military resources from Russia. Furthermore, she emphasizes India's increasing oil transactions with Russia, which is now also being sold to other countries.
What Lies Ahead
Navigating the labyrinth While the end of the conflict remains elusive, it's clear that the war could persist for months or even years. Both countries must be willing to compromise to expedite a resolution.
Speculation is rife about a potential military coup to oust Putin, but this possibility seems distant given Putin's comprehensive security measures. Dr. Pande maintains that the global community must adapt, new alliances should be formed, and progress will remain slow unless a significant change occurs.
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to unfold, India finds itself in a complex geopolitical web. The way forward calls for strategic manoeuvring and diplomatic finesse. Leveraging its longstanding ties with Russia while nurturing its growing relationship with the West, India needs to strike a balance that preserves its national interests. The recent defence partnerships signify India's readiness to diversify its alliances. It is clear that while India remains committed to peaceful negotiations and diplomatic resolutions, it is also prepared to navigate the potential challenges and adjust its foreign policy strategies in accordance with the evolving global landscape. Future decisions will need to carefully consider the complex ripple effects of these international conflicts, aiming to secure India's geopolitical standing and bolster its national security.