IMPHAL, June 1 - The North-East India is expected to have a below normal monsoon this year, though rainfall over the country is likely to be normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted in its latest forecast.
�Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2019 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be normal,� the IMD forecast report issued on Friday said.
Monsoon is categorised as below normal if the LPA (long period average) is between 90-96 per cent and classified as deficient if it is below that. Anything above 110 per cent of the LPA is classified as excess rainfall.
�Region wise, the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 94 per cent of LPA over North-West India, 100 per cent of LPA over Central India, 97 per cent of LPA over South Peninsula and 91 per cent of LPA over North-East India, all with a model error of plus or minus 8 per cent,� it said.
�The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 95 per cent of LPA during July and 99 per cent of LPA during August, both with a model error of plus or minus 9 per cent.�
�There are also chances of not getting sufficient monthly rainfall in our State if the existing trend continues,� a weatherman based here said.
Imphal, which received the highest rainfall since 1956 in 2017 (2,439.4 mm) as per ICAR sources, has just received (50 per cent) deficit rainfall during January-May this year, as compared to the previous year.
The El Nino phenomenon, generally believed to have its impact on the monsoon, will continue during the rainy season. However, there is a possibility of these conditions turning neutral during the later part of the rainfall season, the IMD said. El Nino is linked to the heating of the Pacific waters.
The monsoon is likely to strengthen further and set over Kerala around June 6, reportedly five days after its normal onset date.
The IMD, which issued the first-stage operational long-range forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole on April 15, is also expected to issue the forecast for the rainfall during the second half of the season at the end of July 2019, the report added.