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Climate change affecting NE monsoon pattern

By Ajit Patowary

GUWAHATI, Oct 2 � In what seems to be the first scientific confirmation from a valid authority of the impact of the climate change phenomenon on India, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Director Prof BN Goswami has said that the number of heavy monsoon rainfall incidents in its NE region was reduced. This, he said, has happened under the impact of the global warming phenomenon.

On the contrary, Prof Goswami said, incidents of heavy monsoon rainfall are on the rise in the Central part of the country. Moreover, Indian monsoon has become less predictable now. The study of the monsoon rainfall data of the country for the past about 50 years has led to the above conclusions.

It needs mention here that the NE region of the country is generally known as one of the regions receiving high amount of rainfall with heavy rainfall incidents taking place copiously.

Prof Goswami was delivering the Prof AN Sarma Memorial Lecture on the �Indian Monsoon in a Changing Climate� on the occasion of the Ninth annual general meeting of the Assam Engineering College Alumni Association (AECAA) at the AEC Auditorium here yesterday.

The number of incidents of low and moderate rains is decreasing in the Central part of the country while the rise in the number of incidents of heavy rainfall has been leading to flash flood in this part of the country, he said.

But significantly, the mean amount of monsoon rainfall has remained stable in the country. So far, nothing is observed that suggests increased monsoon rainfall activities in the country, he said.

He also pointed out to the fact that the year 2009 was found to be the warmest in the country in the past 100 years.

However, the country has a very small climate modeling community and it is also not that well-equipped to meet the challenges of simulating the changed patterns and go for the right predictions, said Prof Goswami.

He maintained that under the impact of the global warming phenomenon, the global mean temperature is increasing at a faster rate. This has become evident with the examination of the temperature data for the past 100 years and comparing them with the reconstructed data on global temperature for the past about 1,000 years.

At the function, Prof AK Ghosh of IIT-Kharagpur delivered the Prof PM Deka Memorial Lecture on �Hypersonic Aircraft�. Both Prof Goswami and Prof Ghosh interacted with the audience.

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