'Too early for surveys’: Assam CM on poll predicting BJP's return in 2026
With seats & candidates undecided, Sarma says voter response on ground counts more than surveys
Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma in Dimoria (Photo: @himantabiswa/X)
Dimoria, Jan 4: A day after an Assam-based electoral survey predicted the BJP’s return to power in the 2026 Assembly polls, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, on Sunday, played down the findings, saying it was still “too early to draw conclusions” as alliance dynamics and seat-sharing were yet to be finalised.
Speaking on the sidelines of the MMUA seed fund distribution programme at Dimoria in Kamrup (Metro), Sarma said opinion polls at this stage do not offer a clear picture of the political landscape.
“I feel it is still not time for surveys because it is not clear who will be part of the NDA or the UPA. How many seats the AGP will contest or how many seats the BJP will hold is also unclear. Only by February will we get a clear picture,” the Chief Minister said, after distributing seed money among around 24,000 beneficiaries at the event.
He added that neither seat distribution nor candidates for specific constituencies had been finalised, stressing that public response on the ground mattered more than survey projections.
“We should not be excited over surveys but look at public participation in gatherings and the support we receive,” Sarma said.
Responding to questions on the BJP’s electoral prospects following delimitation, the Chief Minister said the party could contest in as many as 103 constituencies, up from earlier estimates.
“There is a possibility of us winning in 103 constituencies. Earlier, it was around 90, but after delimitation, 13 to 15 seats have been added. The remaining 22 seats have a lower possibility of victory. Ultimately, the public will decide,” he said.
On the likelihood of new faces being fielded, Sarma indicated that the BJP is likely to introduce fresh candidates, particularly in constituencies that have been added or strengthened after delimitation.
“The probable number of constituencies for the BJP has increased compared to earlier, including places like Dimoria in Guwahati. New candidates will automatically come from the BJP,” he said.
The Chief Minister reiterated that clarity on alliances, seat-sharing and candidates would emerge only in the coming months, urging party workers to focus on grassroots engagement rather than pre-election projections.
According to the survey released on Saturday, the BJP is projected to secure around 39% of the vote share, while the NDA as a whole could touch the 90-seat mark in the 126-member Assam Assembly.
The survey indicated that the Congress may garner around 37% vote share, followed by AGP at 7%, BPF at 5.5%, UPPL at 1.2%, AIUDF at 2.5%, Raijor Dal at 0.9%, AJP at 0.7%, CPI(M) at 0.8%, and others together at around 5%.