Assam to witness rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns by 2040: Study

Guwahati, Feb 16: Mean annual temperatures in some districts of the state may rise by up to 0.83 degrees Celsius by 2040, while rainfall patterns in the state are expected to shift with notable changes in precipitation and dry spells.

High wet bulb temperatures (a measure of heat and humidity combined) are projected for several districts, with Jorhat and Majuli likely to experience the highest levels exceeding 31 degrees, according to the projections released by Bangaluru-based Azim Premji University."These conditions present a significant health risk, particularly during heatwaves. Nagaon is projected to see a 1.95 degree Celsius rise in annual wet bulb temperature, indicating increased heat-related health challenges," scientist Santonu Goswami of the School of Climate Change and Sustainability at the university said while releasing the data here.

Tinsukia, Dhemaji and Dibrugarh are projected to experience the highest mean annual temperature rise of 0.83 degrees, 0.76 degrees and 0.74 degrees, respectively.

These districts will also see mean summer maximum temperature increases of 0.52 degrees, 0.44 degrees and 0.44 degrees, respectively.

Winters too will be notably warmer, with South Salmara-Mankachar, Udalguri and Chirang seeing winter maximum temperature increases of 1.6 degrees, 1.46 degrees and 1.4 degrees."Such warming could disrupt agricultural cycles, biodiversity and energy demands for heating and cooling," Goswami said.

The Northeast monsoon could see extended dry periods of up to 68.12 days, and Darrang may face a 7.54 per cent increase in dry spells during the season. While South Salmara could see 46.88 days of very heavy rainfall during the Southeast Monsoon, Hojai may experience an 11.08 percent reduction in such days during the Northeast Monsoon.

Most Assam districts will see Northeast monsoon rainfall go down by up to 15 per cent."Extended dry spells and varying rainfall intensity are likely to exacerbate water shortages, impacting irrigation and drinking water availability.

Changes in rainfall patterns could also affect the timing and productivity of agricultural cycles, posing challenges to Assam's agrarian economy," Goswami said.

The projections are based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to investigate the potential future impacts of climate change and possible responses to it. The insights presented are based on the climate change scenarios which assume that society will take moderate steps to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change, leading to a future with moderate effects.

By

Staff Reporter