Assam Polls: Development narrative gains, unease over prices, jobs persists

With barely a few days remaining before the upcoming elections to 126 seats in the Assam Legislative Assembly, poll related activities by political parties in the fray have intensified sharply.

If recent media reports are to be believed, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be ahead in outreach campaigns, although the electoral contest remains open ended.

More importantly, the party has already reshaped the poll narrative around development, transformation, inclusive governance, indigenous cultural identity and welfare schemes, among others - a kind which has been modified perceptibly in tune with the spirit of the unfolding electoral landscape.

Arguably, the party's robust organisational network and its electoral machinery are essentially at a breakneck speed, which has its vivid manifestation in the party's 'Jana Ashirwad Yatra'.

The party will, during its electioneering, underscore its work on roads, highways, bridges, and fast-growing traffic-easing flyovers.

But beneath the surface lies a sense of disillusionment among a section of the electorate, with a number of concerning issues affecting their day-to-day lives, such as rising prices of essential commodities.

So, their campaign focuses on various women empowerment welfare schemes such as doling out Rs 9,000 each to nearly 40 lakh women under the Orunodoi 3.0 scheme across Assam.

With its organisational network having been strong, launching a rigorous campaign is relatively easy for the BJP.

It gets further solidified with regular meetings, poll rallies, and periodic visits by prominent BJP leaders including the Prime Minister, the Home Minister, and the party's national president.

Their visits have helped orchestrate grassroots mobilisation, besides broadening the party's social support base.

Yet, behind the well thought-out poll strategy lie some complex issues that the BJP will avoid highlighting, including unemployment.

While the government more often than not trots out figures for recruitment, the reality appears otherwise.

The party, however, reportedly plans to fill approximately 75,000 teacher and lecturer vacancies this year.

One positive aspect is that the government has given employment to more than one lakh educated unemployed youth during the first three years of the Himanta Biswa Sarma led government.

In the last two years, it has also given jobs to a large number of young educated persons.

But what is galling is that a few lakhs are added every year to the list of unemployed.

In this State, the scope for job opportunities in the private sector is minimal.

Of course, the completion of the Rs 27,000 crore mega semiconductor plant at Jagiroad will certainly create a significant number of job opportunities directly and in-directly.

Then, there is another emotive issue that the BJP leadership is likely to skirt during the current campaign- the promise of Scheduled Tribe status to the six major indigenous communities - the Tai Ahom, Chutia, Koch Rajbongshi, Moran, Matak and Tea Tribes that remains unfulfilled, given that it was a major poll plank in 2016 and 2021.

Inordinate delay in delivering on this promise may dilute its image among these communities.

So, ahead of the election, the government has decided to grant Other Backward Classes (OBC) status to as many as 87 tea tribe munities.

This will entitle them to receive specific benefits and reservations.

But how far this is going to appease them remains a big question, because they, along with five other communities, have long been agitating for the much coveted ST status.

This delay in according such status may stand the Congress party in good stead electorally, provided it exploits the issue to the hilt.

Yet another major tangle the BJP leadership will avoid placing in the limelight is the anxiety among indigenous people about a perceived demographic threat and cultural identity crisis.

Although a sense of despondency and fear of marginalisation persists, the government has assured protection of land and political rights by evicting illegal immigrants and, more importantly, putting reclaimed land to use for people centric welfare projects such as the one at Gorukhuti.

During its past ten-year tenure, Assam has witnessed considerable headway in terms of infrastructure development such as the construction of roads, highways, flyovers, rail-ways, and bridges over the Brahmaputra, which have become the talk of the town.

All this has happened thanks to the ruling party's meticulous planning and judicious use of the huge funds allocated and released by the Centre in the past ten years to Assam.

There-fore, the BJP will certainly make development, inclusive governance and indigenous identity major campaign issues as it seeks to retain its support base while facing electoral challenges from opposition parties.

The BJP also played a smart strategic move by bringing the Bodoland People's Front into its fold.

The Congress is dealing with inner-party squabbles over leadership, resignations, defections, and dissension, at a politically defining moment for the party.

The resignation of former APCC president Bhupen Borah and his joining the BJP, followed by the resigna-tion of three Congress MLAs, including Kamalakhya Dey Purkayastha, and the defection of senior leader Prodyut Bordoloi to the BJP-he is now contesting on a BJP ticket have further exposed the existing fault lines within the party.

Several senior leaders of the Congress, which has forged alliances with smaller parties, are disgruntled over the distribution of party tickets.

Under the circumstances, it is doubtful how much ground it will regain, because it does not essentially have anything substantial to capitalise on to take the wind out of the BJP's sails.

References to unrelated issues, such as the demise of music legend Zubeen Garg, appear misplaced and incorrect in this electoral context.

While some opinion polls indicate an advantage for the ruling party, such projections remain indicative rather than definitive in a closely contested election.

It remains to be seen who finally has the last laugh. Electoral outcomes often hinge on late shifts in voter sentiment, local factors, and alliance arithmetic, which may yet influence the final result.

- By Dwaipayan