IMD predicts weak monsoon for Northeast; rest of India set for good rains

Guwahati, April 16: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its long-range forecast for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon, predicting above-normal seasonal rainfall across most parts of the country.

However, the Northeast, along with parts of Northwest and South Peninsular India, is expected to receive below-normal rainfall.

“The spatial distribution suggests above-normal seasonal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country except some areas over Northwest India, Northeast India and South Peninsular India, where below-normal rainfall is likely,” the IMD said in a statement.

The forecast comes amid growing concerns over regional imbalances in rainfall, particularly in Assam.

IMD data for March revealed a stark contrast in rainfall distribution across the state. While several districts in eastern Assam witnessed heavy downpours, much of western and southern Assam reeled under acute rainfall deficiency.

Dhemaji, for instance, received 187.2 mm rainfall in March—double its normal average of 93.5 mm.

Similar excesses were reported from Jorhat, Sivasagar, Tinsukia, and Dibrugarh. In contrast, Goalpara recorded just 2.7 mm of rain against a normal of 49.5 mm, marking a 95% deficit. Nagaon, too, recorded a 90% shortfall.

Other districts that experienced severe deficits include Barpeta (–56%), Baksa (–63%), Cachar (–80%) and Darrang (–88%). Kamrup Metro, which includes Guwahati, saw a 74% rainfall shortfall, receiving only 18.2 mm in March.

The city saw its hottest day of the month on March 16, when temperatures soared to 35.4°C.

Looking ahead, the IMD has also warned of hotter-than-usual temperatures during the April–June period, with an increased likelihood of heatwaves in central and eastern India and parts of the northwestern plains.