Assam polls: Once a force, AIUDF loses steam as alliances fade, base slips

Guwahati, March 22: From emerging as the second largest party in the Assembly polls of 2011 to now fighting to retain appeal among its core base of supporters in an electoral arena, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) has traversed a long way distance in Assam’s political history during the two decades.

Since its inception in 2005, the Badruddin Ajmal-led party has been successful in not only maintaining a loyal support base among segments of the population and in certain geographical parts of the State, but also in winning a decent number of seats in Assembly elections held over the years.

AIUDF, which started as the Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF) before the party’s official name was changed, created a storm in the State’s politics when it secured as many as 10 seats and a 9.03 per cent vote share on its debut in the 2006 Assembly polls after fielding candidates in 69 constituencies.

The party made further inroads in the 2011 Assembly elections when it won as many as 18 seats (out of the 78 contested by its candidates) and polled 12.57 per cent of the votes.

AIUDF emerged as the largest opposition party in the Assam Legislative Assembly in those elections.

In 2016, the party’s strength in the Assembly went down to 13 (out of 74 seats contested), even though its vote share went up to 13.05 per cent.

In the last Assembly elections held in 2021, AIUDF was part of the Congress-led opposition ‘grand alliance’.

As part of the seat-sharing arrangement, AIUDF fielded its nominees from only 20 constituencies and won as many as 16 of those. Its vote share stood at 9.29 per cent in 2021.

However, since then, the Ajmal-led party has faced one reversal after another.

Following the 2021 Assembly polls, the Congress snapped ties with the AIUDF and the other opposition parties have also kept it at an arm’s length.

Repeated attempts to rejoin hands with the other ‘anti-NDA’ outfits have been ignored and feelers sent out by the AIUDF have been rebuffed by the Congress and other opposition parties.

AIUDF had secured one seat in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. Its tally went up to three in 2014, before falling to one again in 2019.

But in the 2024 General Elections, the party suffered a rout. Even Ajmal himself, who had won from the Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency in three successive Lok Sabha elections, suffered a humiliating defeat in 2024.

The growth and expansion of the BJP and the resultant polarization, that had at one time helped the AIUDF to also broaden its base, later led to its decline.

With the Muslim electorate resorting to ‘tactical’ voting against the BJP in greater numbers and allegations surfacing of ‘secret’ ties between the AIUDF and the saffron party, Ajmal’s outfit soon suffered a big erosion in its base.

The Muslims of immigrant origin, who had jumped into its bandwagon and constituted the main support base of the AIUDF since the party’s inception, began to drift back to the Congress post-2021.

In addition, AIUDF has always faced the problem of internal discipline. Many of its MLAs defected to other parties over the years and the trend continued during the period of the outgoing Assembly as well.

AIUDF leaders admitted that they face a serious challenge in the April 9 Assembly elections this time.

“The 2024 Lok Sabha result was a shocker. Although we have managed to regain some ground since then, as became evident during last year’s panchayat polls, the fight will be tough this time. That is why we have decided to concentrate our efforts in only around 30 seats in the coming polls,” said a senior AIUDF office-bearer.

He continued, “We are in serious contention in at least half of the seats where our party is contesting. Even if we manage to win at least five or six or seven seats, then we have a fair chance of once again expanding our presence in the coming time.”

He said Ajmal’s candidacy from the Binnakandi seat is part of a well thought out strategy to galvanize the party’s core support base and help it once again spread among the voters, especially in the Muslim-dominated constituencies.

AIUDF sources also admitted that their party is totally dependent on Ajmal.

“All these years, we failed to develop a second rung of leaders. That has proved to be a handicap and could have unforeseen consequences in the long run,” said another leader.