Assam polls 2026: Congress faces uphill task against BJP despite openings

Guwahati, Mar 15: The Congress in Assam, weakened by defections, may face an uphill task in challenging the BJP in the upcoming Assembly elections.

Scheduled to be held in a single phase on April 9, the polls are expected to witness a direct contest between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led Opposition front.

Though the party has been out of power since 2016, its state unit president Gaurav Gogoi has taken a defiant stand against the BJP and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.

In this election, the Congress will have to contend with the BJP’s strong organisational network, Sarma’s proactive leadership, and a series of development initiatives and welfare measures that have strengthened the ruling party’s prospects.

Against this backdrop, here is an analysis of the Congress party’s strengths and weaknesses ahead of the high-stakes battle for Assam.

The strengths

The anti-incumbency factor against the ruling party may be in Congress' favour but there are hurdles along the way which it plans to tackle by forming an alliance with the Assam Jatiya Parishad, the CPI(M) and All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) to take on the BJP.

Congress has the advantage of securing the support of minority voters, particularly Bengali-speaking Muslims, as the ruling party's continued policies against this community have largely antagonised them.

Gogoi winning the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency by a comfortable margin despite the ruling BJP putting its entire machinery behind its party candidate in 2024, and the Congress again projecting him as the chief ministerial face and a candidate from Jorhat assembly constituency this time will considerably boost the party's morale.

The corruption charges against the ruling party, particularly the Chief Minister Sarma, some members of his family and few cabinet colleagues are also likely to work in favour of the Congress.

The weaknesses

The Congress has faced several reverses in Assam in the last one decade since the present chief minister quit the party along with many others to join the BJP. The most recent blow came when former state president Bhupen Borah and three other MLAs joined the saffron party while two others got inducted into the Raijor Dal.

The principal Opposition's lack of a unified organisational structure, particularly in the grassroots, may also work against it and this is most evident from the shifting of allegiance of tea garden workers, once its major vote bank, towards the BJP during assembly and parliamentary elections since 2014.

The Chief Minister's allegations against Gogoi and his wife Elizabeth Colburn of having Pakistani links may also disadvantage the party in some pockets of the state, particularly in the rural areas.

The opportunities

The Congress' opportunity lies in capitalising on the anti-incumbency factor to swing the verdict in its favour. I

t can do this by emphasising the corruption charges against the ruling party and highlighting the humanitarian challenges faced by minority community members due to various government policies, especially eviction drives.

The party can also take advantage of the disgruntled elements in the ruling NDA alliance and induct them into the party.

The Opposition party can also benefit from the ruling party's failure to grant Scheduled Tribe status to six communities, namely Tai Ahom, Chutia, Moran, Motok, Koch-Rajbongshi and Tea Tribes (Adivasis).

The threats

The threat to Congress' quest for power in the state lies mainly in the ruling party highlighting that its major electorate base is the Bengali-speaking Muslims which does not go down well with the dominant Assamese community.

The quitting of prominent leaders and also workers is a continuing threat that adversely affects the party. The ruling NDA's organisational and administrative machinery also pose a challenge to the Congress.

PTI