GUWAHATI, May 11 � A queer assessment is keeping the Congress camp puzzled on the formation of the next Government in the State. Sources very close to the party said that the Congress is going to win between 45 and 51 seats of the State Assembly this time. In case the party secures 45 seats, it is feared that adverse situations would force Tarun Gogoi to shed the idea of assuming charge of the Leader of the House for the third time.
However, he may take over the rein only if the party can secure 51 seats or more, sources said.
Explaining these queer things that have been confusing the Congress rank and file, sources said that this time the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is sure to get 15 seats, while Congress� old ally the Bodoland People�s Front (BPF) is likely to get only nine seats. The number of seats it is winning and the seats likely to be won by the BPF have led to the present predicament inside the Congress.
In case the Congress gets 45 seats, it will have to depend on a comparatively large party to form the Government. And here the AIUDF has emerged as the likely ally. But in this case also, the Congress is to persuade at least four of the BPF legislators to �desert� their party, sources said.
However, in case the Congress gets 51 seats, it will be able to form the Government with the support of the BPF and several of the Independent MLAs would also be on the wings to extend their support to the Congress in this matter, said the sources.
In that case, Tarun Gogoi, who is known as a man of principle in the party, would not object to taking over the rein said the sources. It needs mention here that the Congress has been officially maintaining that it would win around 64 seats this time.
Meanwhile, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is sticking to its claim that it would win between 50 and 52 seats. The estimate is based on the reports of the candidates prepared on the basis of the information provided by the polling agents, booth committees and the various agencies like the IB, SB, etc, said AGP vice, president and spokesman Apurba Bhattacharjee.
He said that the AGP is confident that it would be able to form the Government in the State this time with the support of the Ganashakti (2), Bodoland People�s Progressive Front [(BPPF) 2], United People�s Democratic Front (1) and the Autonomous State Demand Committee (2).
Besides, the support of the other non-Congress parties is also expected in preventing the Congress from coming to power for the third time said Bhattacharjee.
�We are hopeful that the Opposition parties would stick to their anti-Congress stance. Or else, the common people of the State would be disappointed,� Bhattacharjee said, adding, the Congress� bid to give the impression that it is in the race would fall flat on May 13.
Sources in the BJP said that the BJP is likely to get around 20 Assembly seats this time in the State and this assessment is made on the basis of the inputs received from the people. However, this time, most of the people preferred to remain silent. This has created some problems in assessing the situation correctly, said the BJP sources.
Meanwhile, sources said, the party�s talks with the AGP are on for the formation of the next Government in the State. But the talks will take a concrete shape only after the election results are declared on May 13, said the BJP sources.
