GUWAHATI, April 6 - The forecast made by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates that during the 2016 hot weather season, temperatures (that is mean, maximum and minimum) in all the meteorological subdivisions of the country are likely to be above normal.
The season averaged maximum temperatures of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Assam and Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, and Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (NMMT) are likely to be warmer by less than 0.5 degree Celsius (C) of their respective normals and that of the remaining subdivisions are likely to be warmer than their normals by 0.5 degree C to 1 degree C.
All the temperatures (maximum, minimum and mean) of most of the subdivisions from northwest India, Kerala from south India and Vidarbha from central India are likely to be above normal by above or equal to 1 degree C, said the IMD.
The season averaged minimum temperatures of sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, and NMMT are likely to be warmer than their normals by less than 0.5 degree C and that of the remaining subdivisions are likely to be warmer than their normals by 0.5 degree C to 1 degree C. In 2015, the country experienced significantly warmer temperatures in line with the warmer than normal global temperatures observed during the same period. The year 2015 was the third warmest on record since 1901. This warming trend continued during the recent two months (January and February, 2016) also, said the IMD.
The average monthly temperature during January and February in 2016 was the second warmest and the warmest respectively on record since 1901 with anomalies of 1.5 degree C and 2 degree C respectively. The recent research analysis suggests that frequency and duration of heat waves over the country are showing an increasing trend. A part of the increasing trend is attributed to increasing greenhouse gases due to anthropogenic activity. In addition, the ocean conditions over the equatorial Indian and Pacific oceans also contribute to the variability of heat waves over the country.
Abnormally above normal temperatures can have devastating effects on human health, water resources and power generation and outage. There is a marked relationship between human mortality and thermal stress. During the summer of 2015, prolonged severe heat wave conditions prevailed over Andhra Pradesh and parts of Telangana which claimed more than 2,500 lives, said the IMD.