GUWAHATI, June 8 - The NE region is likely to receive 94 per cent of the long period average (LPA) seasonal (June to September) rainfall in the ensuing monsoon season, even though the country as a whole is likely to receive 106 per cent rainfall of the LPA with a model error of plus-minus 4 per cent. This has been stated by the India Meteorology Department (IMD) in its Second Stage operational Long Range Forecast issued a few days back.
The LPA rainfall over the country as a whole for the period between 1951 and 2000 is 89 cm, said the IMD, maintaining that there is no change in the updated quantitative forecast from the first stage operational forecast issued by it on April 12, 2016 on the 2016 monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country.
The IMD said that the northwestern region of the country is likely to receive a seasonal rainfall of 108 per cent of the LPA during this monsoon, while Central India is likely to receive 113 per cent rainfall of the LPA and the South Peninsula is also expected to receive a similar amount of rainfall during the monsoon this year. The IMD, however, maintained that there may be a model error of plus-minus 8 per cent in this respect.
On the issue of the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country, it said that the rainfall over the country likely to be 107 per cent of its LPA during July and 104 per cent of the LPA during August, both with a model error of plus-minus 9 per cent.
The IMD issues the operational long range forecasts for the southwest monsoon season (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole in April and June.