GUWAHATI, June 30 � Long-term variations in the atmospheric parameters may have resulted in the reduced incidence of continuous rainfall activities for over three days at a stretch over the NE region these days, compared to the monsoon days about 50 years back. However, to link them with the phenomenon of climate change, one needs the support of an exhaustive scientific study.
Meanwhile, the Regional Meteorology Centre (RMC) here has predicted the likelihood of widespread rainfall activities over the NE region during the next 24 hours. It has further predicted that there is also a likelihood of heavy to very heavy rainfall activities at one or two places of the region during the same period.
According to H Pathak, Deputy Director General of Meteorology (DDGM) of RMC, the long period persistence of monsoon weather systems, like trough, contribute to continuous rainfall activities. But presence of these factors has become less these days, which may be due to the said long-term variation in the atmospheric parameters.
The fundamental atmospheric parameters � surface temperature, surface humidity and surface wind � seem to have undergone long period changes. But it requires a long-period scientific observation to arrive at any conclusion linking them with the changes taking place in climate, Pathak said emphatically.
The DDGM was talking to this newspaper on the shift observed in the period of continuous rainfall activities for over three days during the Ambubachi festival. He claimed that the periods of intense rainfall activities are not to be determined by the astrological calculations of the almanacs.
However, during the past two to three days, monsoon rainfall activities over the NE region appeared to have been increasing, Pathak added.
The associated weather system, as on date, has appeared as a trough of low pressure running from Rajasthan to North Eastern Bay of Bengal, passing through UP, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Gangetic West Bengal. One cyclonic circulation has also been observed over East UP and its neighbourhood, extending up to 3.1 km above mean sea level.
Under the influence of these weather systems, widespread rainfall activities have been predicted for the next 24 hours. Heavy to very heavy rainfall may occur at one or two places of the region during the same period, Pathak said.
During the past 24 hours, since 8.30 am yesterday, Lower Cherrapunji recorded a rainfall of 418.6 mm, while RK Puram in Upper Cherrapunji recorded a rainfall of 334.4 mm during the period.
During the period, Borapani recorded a rainfall of 80.4 mm, Umium recorded a rainfall of 96 mm, Nongstoin recorded a rainfall of 89 mm and Shillong recorded a rainfall of 198.9 mm, said the DDGM.