GUWAHATI, April 18 - During the ensuing monsoon, the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus-minus five per cent, said the India Meteorology Department (IMD) in its Long Range Forecast of the 2016 Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the fifty-year-period, between 1951and 2000, is 89 cm said the IMD.
The probability forecasts for the seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole shows that the above normal rainfall probability may range between 104 per cent and 110 per cent during the season, it said.
The Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) of the Ministry of Earth Sciences has been coordinating and working along with different Indian and foreign climate research centres on the development of a coupled model for forecasting Indian summer monsoon rainfall under the Monsoon Mission project. The latest high resolution research version of the Coupled Forecasting System (CFS) originally developed by the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been used to generate experimental forecast for the 2016 Southwest Monsoon season rainfall using the February initial conditions, said the IMD.
The experimental forecast based on the Monsoon Mission coupled dynamical model suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2016 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 111 per cent with a plus-minus five per cent Long Period Model Average (LPMA), the IMD said.