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Impact on regional levels inconclusive

By AJIT PATOWARY

GUWAHATI, June 21 � Even as serious apprehensions are being expressed by several quarters about the adverse impact of the changes taking place in the global climate, scientists are yet to arrive at a conclusion on the impact of the phenomenon at the regional levels.

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune said in its website (�Global warming and the monsoon� chapter) that �although several studies suggest an intensification of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (Zhao and Kellogg 1988; Meehl and Washington 1993; Bhaskaran et al. 1995; Kitoh et al. 1997), there is still a controversy about the regional climate change impact, especially over the Indian subcontinent (Hirakuchi and Giorgi, 1995).�

It further said that no clear evidence for a significant change in the Indian monsoon rainfall was found either in the MPI coupled GCM (Lal et al. 1995) or in the time-slice experiments performed with former versions of the Meteo-France atmospheric GCM (Royer et al. 1996). Moreover, no evidence has been found in the observational record to suggest that the all-India average rainfall has increased systematically over the last century (Pant et al. 1993), said the IITM.

However, K Rajendran, S Sajani, CB Jayasankar and A Kitoh said in a write-up, �How dependent is climate change projection of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and extreme events on model resolution?� that future projections by time-slice simulations of MRI-AGCM3.2S under global warming scenario show widespread but spatially varying increase in rainfall over interior regions of peninsular, west central, central northeast and North East India and significant reduction in orographic rainfall over the west coast.

It further states that MRI-AGCM3.2S projects spatially heterogeneous increase in warm days and extreme hot events over India. The write-up has been uploaded on to the CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation website.

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Impact on regional levels inconclusive

GUWAHATI, June 21 � Even as serious apprehensions are being expressed by several quarters about the adverse impact of the changes taking place in the global climate, scientists are yet to arrive at a conclusion on the impact of the phenomenon at the regional levels.

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune said in its website (�Global warming and the monsoon� chapter) that �although several studies suggest an intensification of the Asian summer monsoon rainfall with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (Zhao and Kellogg 1988; Meehl and Washington 1993; Bhaskaran et al. 1995; Kitoh et al. 1997), there is still a controversy about the regional climate change impact, especially over the Indian subcontinent (Hirakuchi and Giorgi, 1995).�

It further said that no clear evidence for a significant change in the Indian monsoon rainfall was found either in the MPI coupled GCM (Lal et al. 1995) or in the time-slice experiments performed with former versions of the Meteo-France atmospheric GCM (Royer et al. 1996). Moreover, no evidence has been found in the observational record to suggest that the all-India average rainfall has increased systematically over the last century (Pant et al. 1993), said the IITM.

However, K Rajendran, S Sajani, CB Jayasankar and A Kitoh said in a write-up, �How dependent is climate change projection of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and extreme events on model resolution?� that future projections by time-slice simulations of MRI-AGCM3.2S under global warming scenario show widespread but spatially varying increase in rainfall over interior regions of peninsular, west central, central northeast and North East India and significant reduction in orographic rainfall over the west coast.

It further states that MRI-AGCM3.2S projects spatially heterogeneous increase in warm days and extreme hot events over India. The write-up has been uploaded on to the CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation website.

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