NEW DELHI, May 10 � Amidst hectic back room political parleys, the exit poll results are bad news for the Opposition AGP, while the Congress may lose its majority in the 126-member Assembly.
The CNN-IBN-Hindu exit poll has predicted that the ruling Congress is still likely to emerge the single largest party.
According to the projections of the exit poll, 52-60 seats are going to the ruling party, while the seat share of the AGP has been pegged at 25-31. The BJP seems to be finishing a poor third with 10-15 seats.
In the outgoing House, the Congress had 71 seats as against AGP�s 20 and BJP�s 8. Both the CPI and CPI-M had drawn blank in the 2001 Assembly elections while as many as 27 seats were with other parties and independents (19).
The group, C-VOTER, which claimed that under normal conditions this could have provided a "big anti-incumbency verdict", but by not contesting together, the AGP and the BJP have missed a golden opportunity of what could have been a total wipe-out of the Congress.
This was because the exit poll showed a historic plus 22 per cent swing in favour of the opposition parties, which is almost equally divided between the AGP and the BJP, it said in a release.
The biggest surprise was the prediction of Today�s Chanakya, which has predicted a windfall for the Congress projecting 70-79 seats, while opposition AGP has been given 20-29 seats. Both AIUDF and BJP are predicted to wrest five-eight seats, down from their past performance.
Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, the survey claimed was the most popular chief minister with 61 per cent of those polled backing him, while Prafulla Kumar Mahanta and Chandra Mohan Patowary polled only 10 per cent and 12 per cent votes respectively.
The exit poll conducted by Star News predicted a close contest, though it said Tarun Gogoi-led Congress has a chance to create history in Assam by returning to power for a third consecutive term. The Headlines Today poll predicts 44 of the 126 seats for Congress in Assam, with �potential ally� AIUDF likely to win 14.
Meanwhile, back room politicking is on with AICC general secretary in-charge for Assam, Digvijay Singh calling on AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal at his South Avenue residence for what was described as a courtesy visit, sources said.
The two leaders again talked over telephone this morning before Ajmal left for Assam. However, the attempt to open dialogue with Ajmal has not gone down well with a section of State Congress-men, who disapproved of a formal tie-up with AIUDF.
A senior State leader said that Congress would manage to retain power with the support of BPF and in the event they fall short, then the option of roping in smaller regional parties should be exercised.
A post-poll alliance with AIUDF would not augur well for the Congress party in the future, as it may not go down well with the mainstream Assamese society and the ruling party�s support base. �We may face trouble in future elections,� he observed.
