GUWAHATI, May 11 � The latest consensus statement of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) has stated that there is a possibility of below normal monsoon rainfall over broad areas of western, central and southwestern parts of South Asia and some areas in the northeastern-most parts of the region.
Significantly, the North-Eastern region of India is located in this �northeastern-most� part of the region.
The Forum has said that below normal to normal rainfall is most likely during the 2014 summer monsoon season (June-September) over South Asia as a whole. Normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of northwestern and eastern parts and some island areas in the southernmost parts of the region.
This consensus outlook for the 2014 southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia has been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate condition and forecasts from different climate models from around the world, it said.
Though there is strong consensus among the experts about the possibility of evolution of an El Nino event during the summer monsoon season, it is recognised that there is uncertainty in the intensity of the El Nino event. There is also consensus about the potential for adverse impacts of El Nino on the monsoon rainfall over the region.
However, other regional and global factors can also affect the monsoon rainfall pattern over the region, said the consensus statement.
Eight South Asian countries participated in the Forum hosted by the India Meteorology Department (IMD) in Pune, in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), on April 22 and 23 to generate the consensus outlook.
The Forum was attended by representatives from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, India and Sri Lanka.
